image: FlightRadar24

It’s Complicated

What’s new:

• Reports based on ADS-B seem to contradict official statements and press reports about the EU leader’s flight into Bulgaria Sunday, Data from FlightRadar24 shows a good GPS signal and a close to on-time arrival. 
• BUT According to Benoit Figuet at GPSWise the same aircraft did report losing GPS the day before over the Baltics. – We wonder if the Bulgaria report was some government publicist trying to play “catchup.”
• For the Bulgaria leg, It is possible that some GPS receivers or functions on the aircraft were impacted but ADS-B was not. The report of the nav problem and good transponder signal could both be true.
• We hope for clarifying info from the EU/EC.

Why its important: Complicated tech situations are difficult to communicate and can confuse most policy makers, press, and the public, reducing perceived credibility.

• There is a real chance of creating a “boy who cried wolf” scenario. Wolves were a real danger. But his false alarms bred complacency and he was eventually eaten.

What else to know: 

• Even when we stay as close to the facts as possible, it is difficult to not come across as “crying wolf.“
• There are so many indicators of trouble, so many warnings that we should heed... yet without a cathartic event the indicators and warnings become normalized.
• 38 people dying in a plane crash because of GPS jamming should have been a wake-up call, the cathartic event. It seems that incident was too easy to write off as an accident, and/or “over there/not us.”