Have We Reached a Space-Junk Tipping Point? – IEEE Spectrum

October 19, 2025

Written by Editor

Image: European Space Agency

What’s new: Increased concern about space becoming so filled with debris that it is no longer possible to safely use it, or even transit through low earth orbit. We would be trapped on Earth.

Why it’s important:

  • Space and satellites are incredibly important and useful, especially to high tech societies and the West
  • The West’s adversaries have space capabilities, but they do not rely on them as much.
  • Denial of space would be a huge blow to scientific and technological progress. It would also force a rapid, expensive, and disruptive re-tooling of many systems.

What else to know:

  • Space suffers from the tragedy of the commons.” Everybody wants to use it, no one is in charge, it gets despoiled. Everyone acts in their own self interest, and eventually everyone suffers. The oceans and cyberspace are good examples.
  • This article and one we posted a while back assert the Kessler Syndrome has already begun.
  • Tomorrow we are going to post a piece about how the space junk threat can be lessened.

 

Have We Reached a Space-Junk Tipping Point?

In some orbits, the Kessler syndrome is already underway

Low Earth orbitwhere most satellites operate, has become a whirlwind of metal shards and dead, tumbling debris.

Anyone with hardware or human crew in orbit knows the drill. Orbital collision warnings can be unremitting. Whether the object is a defunct satellite or a stray hunk of glass from a solar panel that shattered long ago, every item circling Earth is also a potential projectile. And nearly all of this junk, traveling at least eight times as fast as a rifle bullet, can be damaging in a collision. SpaceX’s Starlink satellites maneuvered around possible debris impacts 144,404 times over the first half of 2025. That’s a collision warning every couple of minutes, night and day, for six months straight—three times the rate of the previous six months. Looming on the horizon, too, is the threat of orbital junk overwhelming satellites’ ability to dodge disaster. Each collision then creates more fragments, in a runaway cascade that turns low Earth orbit into a hazard zone.

READ MORE

What Can YOU Do? How Can YOU Help?

PNT is the quiet backbone of everything but too many leaders still don’t see the risk.

But you do. You understand the systems, the dependencies, the failure chains. That insight is rare — and it’s exactly what your country needs right now. Contact your government leaders and industry decision-makers and tell them resilient PNT isn’t a feature — it’s the foundation everything else depends on.

Start the Conversation

Use our Resilient PNT Key Talking Points to make the case.

U.S. Advocates

Find your representatives at Congress.gov, then use our email template to reach them in minutes.

When you get a response, let us know. Every conversation strengthens the mission.

More PNT News

Munich 9 Years On: Same Message, More Urgency – Inside GNSS

Munich 9 Years On: Same Message, More Urgency – Inside GNSS

Image: Shutterstock What's new: RNTF President Dana Goward's column for the May/June edition of Inside GNSS+. Why it's important: It discusses a PNT example of how concern within the tech community does not necessarily turn into action by political leaders. Or at...

US Congress hearing on PNT –  June 4th

US Congress hearing on PNT – June 4th

Image credit: House Energy and Commerce Committee What's new: A congressional hearing titled Where Are We?: Examining Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Capabilities in the United States. Why it's important:  The hearing is being held by the Communications and...

GPS NOTAMS Not Enough for Safety – Jeremy Bennington at Spirent

GPS NOTAMS Not Enough for Safety – Jeremy Bennington at Spirent

Image: Jeremy Bennington What's new: An important opinion piece on LinkedIn by RNTF member Jeremy Bennington at Spirent about intentional GPS disruption and aviation safety. Why it's important: People's lives are at stake. False contacts, bad locations, relying on...

UK Defence Minister’s Aircraft Jammed… Again – BBC

UK Defence Minister’s Aircraft Jammed… Again – BBC

Image: GPSJam.org - Jamming in the Baltic the day of the minister's flight What's new: The aircraft carrying another high ranking official experienced jamming in northern Europe. Why it's important: Even though jamming impacts tens of thousands of ordinary people on...

Get PNT News in Your Inbox